Healthcare & Clinical
Revised Baux Score & Osler Logistic Burn Mortality Formula
Calculate the Revised Baux Score = Age + %TBSA + 17 * Inhalation_Injury and predicted inpatient burn-center mortality (%) via Turner Osler’s 2010 National Burn Repository logistic model.
Quantify how smoke inhalation adds the equivalent of +17 years or +17% TBSA burn!
Serge Baux’s original 1961 burn rule (Age + %TBSA) became outdated as modern ICU fluid resuscitation, early tangential excision, and grafting pushed the lethal LD50 burn score well past 100—while omitting bronchoscopy-confirmed smoke inhalation injury! Turner Osler, Laurent Glance, and David Hosmer (2010) analyzed 39,888 National Burn Repository patients to establish the Revised Baux Score: rBaux = Age + %TBSA + 17 * Inhalation_Injury (0 or 1)!
Paired with Osler’s calibrated logistic regression logit = -8.8163 + 0.0775 * rBaux, predicted inpatient mortality is P(%) = 100 / (1 + EXP(-(-8.8163 + 0.0775 * rBaux))) (where LD50 occurs near rBaux = 113.8)! Compare a 45-year-old with a 35% TBSA thermal burn: without inhalation injury (rBaux = 80), predicted mortality is 6.81%; add smoke inhalation injury (+17 -> rBaux = 97), and predicted burn-center mortality more than triples to 21.44%!
| Burn Triage Scenario | Revised Baux Score | Predicted Burn Mortality (%) | Burn Center Prognostic Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 yo, 35% TBSA + Inhalation Injury | 97 (45 + 35 + 17) | 21.44% | High-Acuity Burn ICU + Ventilator Protocol |
| 45 yo, 35% TBSA, No Inhalation | 80 (45 + 35 + 0) | 6.81% | Moderate Burn Center Risk |
| 25 yo, 15% TBSA, No Inhalation | 40 (25 + 15 + 0) | 0.33% | Low Mortality (< 1%) |
Revised Baux Score = Age + %TBSA + 17 * Inhalation_Injury
Validates Age >= 0, 0 <= %TBSA <= 100, and binary inhalation flag (0 or 1).
=IF(OR(B2 < 0, B3 < 0, B3 > 100, AND(B4 <> 0, B4 <> 1)), "Invalid Burn Inputs", B2 + B3 + 17 * B4)Osler (2010) Predicted Burn Mortality (%) = 100 / (1 + EXP(-(-8.8163 + 0.0775 * rBaux)))
Evaluates the National Burn Repository logistic mortality probability from Revised Baux points.
=IF(OR(B2 < 0, B3 < 0, B3 > 100, AND(B4 <> 0, B4 <> 1)), "Invalid Burn Inputs", ROUND(100 / (1 + EXP(-(-8.8163 + 0.0775 * (B2 + B3 + 17 * B4)))), 2))Try the example
Use the original values or change them to test your understanding.