Healthcare & Clinical Calculators
EuroSCORE II Cardiac Surgery In-Hospital Mortality Logistic Formula
Convert EuroSCORE II patient, cardiac, and operative log-odds β coefficients into predicted surgical mortality (%) = 100 / (1 + EXP(-(-5.324537 + Σ β_i x_i))).
Nashef’s 2012 EuroSCORE II logistic link correcting additive EuroSCORE overprediction!
The original 1999 EuroSCORE substantially overestimated operative mortality in modern cardiac surgery. Samer A. M. Nashef et al. (European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, 2012; n = 22,381 patients across 154 hospitals) calibrated EuroSCORE II around baseline intercept β_0 = -5.324537 (0.48% mortality for an elective, isolated CABG reference patient <= 60 years with preserved LVEF and normal renal function), transforming summed patient, cardiac, and operative log-odds weights Σ β_i x_i via P(%) = 100 / (1 + EXP(-(-5.324537 + Σ β_i x_i)))!
Evaluate a 70-year-old patient (age contribution +0.2850) with moderate renal impairment CrCl 50–85 mL/min (+0.6559 cumulative patient comorbidity), moderate LV dysfunction LVEF 31%–50% (+0.5521 cardiac weight), and urgent 2-procedure surgery (+0.5321 operative weight): Σ β_i = 2.0251 shifts linear predictor z = -3.2994, yielding 3.56% predicted operative mortality!
| EuroSCORE II Risk Profile | Summed Log-Odds Σ β_i | Linear Predictor z | Predicted Operative Mortality (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference Isolated Elective CABG (<=60 y, Normal EF/CrCl) | 0.0000 | -5.3245 | 0.48% |
| Urgent Combined Case (Σ β = 2.0251) | 2.0251 | -3.2994 | 3.56% |
| Critical Salvage / Redo Multi-Valve (Σ β = 3.8000) | 3.8000 | -1.5245 | 17.88% |
EuroSCORE II Predicted In-Hospital Mortality (%)
Applies the published Nashef 2012 logistic intercept -5.324537 to summed domain log-odds weights B2:B5 (Age, Comorbidity/Renal, Cardiac/LVEF/NYHA, and Operative Urgency/Weight).
=IF(MIN(B2:B5) < 0, "Beta Weights Must Be Non-Negative", ROUND(100 / (1 + EXP(-(-5.324537 + SUM(B2:B5)))), 2))EuroSCORE II Linear Log-Odds Predictor z = -5.324537 + Σ β_i
Returns the raw log-odds score prior to inverse-logit probability conversion.
=IF(MIN(B2:B5) < 0, "Beta Weights Must Be Non-Negative", ROUND(-5.324537 + SUM(B2:B5), 4))Try the example
Use the original values or change them to test your understanding.